|
1
|
- Christopher F. Thornberg
- Senior Economist
|
|
2
|
- The Forecast Team
- Director: Edward Leamer
- Economists: Tom Lieser,
- Christopher Thornberg, Joe Hurd, Mike Bazderich
|
|
3
|
- The US Economy
- A bit about how we got from there to here
- Was that a recovery I heard?
- What can we expect for 2004?
- Location, Location, Location
- What cities are growing? Which aren’t?
- What’s happening in the region?
- Residential Real Estate: is that a pop I heard?
|
|
4
|
|
|
5
|
- 10. Internet Spam
- 9. Kobe / Shaq infighting
- 8. Illegal downloading of music
- 7. France
- 6. “W” becoming President
- 5. Poor network TV fall ratings
- 4. India and China
|
|
6
|
|
|
7
|
- 10. Internet Spam
- 9. Kobe / Shaq infighting
- 8. Illegal downloading of music
- 7. France
- 6. “W” becoming President
- 5. Poor network TV fall ratings
- 4. India and China
|
|
8
|
- Inflation holding steady at 2% Captain Greenspan!
- The US is NOT Japan!
|
|
9
|
- 10. Internet Spam
- 9. Kobe / Shaq infighting
- 8. Illegal downloading of music
- 7. France
- 6. “W” becoming President
- 5. Poor network TV fall ratings
- 4. India and China
- 3. Deflation dread disorder
|
|
10
|
|
|
11
|
- 10. Internet Spam
- 9. Kobe / Shaq infighting
- 8. Illegal downloading of music
- 7. France
- 6. “W” becoming President
- 5. Poor network TV fall ratings
- 4. India and China
- 3. Deflation dread disorder
- 2. Weak Consumer Confidence
|
|
12
|
|
|
13
|
|
|
14
|
|
|
15
|
|
|
16
|
|
|
17
|
- The Internet Rush Hangover
- Excess capacity
- Labor market re-balance
- An over-valued $US
- Corporate Malfeasance
- Macroeconomic Uncertainty
- Normal growth will return when the economy rebalances itself: the baton
of growth needs to be passed from consumers and government back to business
investors and foreign buyers
|
|
18
|
|
|
19
|
|
|
20
|
|
|
21
|
|
|
22
|
|
|
23
|
|
|
24
|
|
|
25
|
|
|
26
|
|
|
27
|
- On the path to normalcy—
- but not there yet
- The recovery has arrived—but still at the initial stages
- Growth in the 4th quarter to slow sharply on weak consumer
durable sales, but inventory restocking likely to help: 3%
- Look for normal growth rates in 2004, not a return to the go-go nineties
- Job growth will begin early next year, but will also be slow as
productivity growth continues to reduce demand for workers
- Outstanding problems with States budget situation and low private
savings still need to be addressed
|
|
28
|
|
|
29
|
|
|
30
|
|
|
31
|
|
|
32
|
|
|
33
|
|
|
34
|
|
|
35
|
|
|
36
|
|
|
37
|
|
|
38
|
|
|
39
|
|
|
40
|
|
|
41
|
|
|
42
|
|
|
43
|
|
|
44
|
|
|
45
|
|
|
46
|
- Mortgage rates to rise slowly: ~6.5% by the end of 2005
- Average housing price appreciation to slow in the US, as will sales
- Local job markets will drive local prices
- New housing to remain strong in Southern California as will retail,
given strong population growth
- Will housing prices be a drain on business? Remember that housing prices
are an EFFECT, not a CAUSE
|
|
47
|
- Upcoming Forecast Events
- December: The Global Outlook
- March: Health Care, Workers Comp—the ongoing business cost crisis
- Local events: Orange County and Sacramento
|
Notes